Weather Forecasting 101
Whether You Like It or Not

Everyone expects snow and cold over the winter months. No surprise there. But what is a surprise is how the weather is analyzed and forecasted. The process is not simple; a cirrus or cumulus cloud in the sky does not mean just one thing...there are several possibilities. Weather in Chicago 24 hours earlier does not guarantee the same weather here...there are several possibilities.

On the day that Forbes Magazine came out with the Top Ten Bad Weather Cities, Cleveland topping the list, I visited WKYC Channel 3 News to learn from Betsy Kling, weeknight meteorologist, how the weather is predicted. On this Tuesday evening before Valentine's Day, the National Weather Service office in Cleveland had issued winter storm warnings and advisories across several Northeast Ohio counties for the overnight and morning hours. WKYC staff was already looking out the window wondering which route to drive home, how much snow to shovel out of their driveways, and what to do if their children's school would be closed. The WKYC I-Alert School Closing System already listed over 140 closings.

"Every meteorologist has his or her own way to figure out the forecast," Kling explained. "We all look at the same information ... different forecast models from sources like universities, government entities, and the military, observations from near and far, satellite and radar imagery, but each of us interpret what we see differently. For example, one of my preferred models, the GFS, goes out 16 days, 384 hours, of raw graphic data, and then will also produce 7 days worth of numeric weather possibilities. It's like a big probability and statistics math machine." Every model has different parameters, different personalities, as Kling puts it and it is the job of the meteorologist to figure out what is the most likely scenario that will play out. All weather models look at the atmosphere in different levels from the ground up to the jet stream which acts as a steering mechanism. Different models are adapted better to different geographic locations and seasonal variabilities.

Looking over her shoulder at the computer monitor, I saw Kling examining locations on many map screens showing various color masses with amorphous-lined radiating shapes. There was no text here, no sentences and no paragraphs. She was writing down numbers and abbreviations in columns, collecting data, to provide content for her forecast page. Her forecast covers the WKYC viewing area reaching over 11,000 square miles in 23 counties in Northeast Ohio. She also pulls up Lake Erie ice pictures from satellites. They have ice pictures for all the Great Lakes. "The water is a driving force related to lake effect snow," she explained, "so if the Lake is iced over, we have less lake effect to our weather." Among other things, she looks at the forecasts for the MSLP (mean sea level pressure) which helps determine where storm systems are and the direction the wind is flowing, and also the expected thickness of the atmosphere. A lower thickness reading indicates cooler air.

With the seasonal changeability in this area, the weather forecast has grown into headline news. In the Northeast Ohio market, long-time weather forecaster Dick Goddard, has had a major influence. "I enjoy teasing him," she said. "Dick was there when weather began," she smiled, "and there isn't anyone I respect more." WKYC has four certified meteorologists who use millions of dollars in computer equipment that is mainly housed here, the largest studio in Cleveland.

After more than 45 minutes of research and developing her forecast on paper, Kling has to determine how the observations and forecasts may be different for other locations in northern Ohio. "Sandusky is now reporting 4.8 inches of snow, Elyria 5.6 inches. I have another 4-9 inches of snow in my forecast but some will be getting more and some will get less, is that copping out or being realistic?" Kling asked. She looked again at the model reports and sticks with her 4-9 inches forecast. She then heads to a microphone in the TV studio to record weather forecasts for local Clear Channel radio stations in a clear, upbeat, and concise manner, so commuters can hear on the radio what to expect driving home. Kling looks excited, "When I forecast clouds or snow, I am heart happy when it actually happens. My weather forecast for tonight was on target," she declared.

After creating her graphics in a the station's weather computer system, it is on to the newscast where she composes her thoughts, stands in front of a blank green background screen, waits for her cue, and begins her condensed, two and a half minute weather broadcast in front of the cameras. Afterward she said, "I love the weather and I love giving the forecast to people who are my friends, not viewers - they check on me and I check on them. A guy emailed me today asking if the Cavs game was going to be canceled because he was coming to Cleveland from far away. A woman asked for the forecast for Norfolk, Virginia because her son was coming back from Navy deployment and the family was traveling to meet him." According to Kling, storms don't do exactly what we tell them. Even with all our technology, the weather can be fascinating and frustrating at the same time. That's why in this business, forecasters develop a weird sense of humor.

From Cool Cleveland contributor Susan Schaul, who says the act of writing is like assembling a jigsaw puzzle. The challenge lies in getting the pieces to fit together and make sense.